Heuristics and Biases

Apparently we are all victims of a lot of heuristics and biases that we pick up by default as we grow, call them patterns in thought or conditioning.

These patterns create space for cognitive error....…deviation from logic, from optimal, rational, reasonable thought and behavior. They look like almost routine mistakes we make, but which are so ingrained that we don't see them for the error they are.

For example, it is much more common that we overestimate our knowledge than that we underestimate it. Similarly, the danger of losing something stimulates us much more than the prospect of making a similar gain. In the presence of other people we tend to adjust our behaviour to theirs, not the opposite. Anecdotes make us overlook the statistical distribution behind it, not the other way round.

The errors we make follow the same pattern over and over again, piling up in one specific, predictable corner like dirty laundry.

Will awareness of the biases help? Let's not expect to get more rational....but maybe we can get less irrational ? :)

Rolf Dobelli has actually made a list of these cognitive errors and it made for fascinating reading; he says some of these errors we have known for centuries and some have been discovered only in the last few years.

Here's one I liked:

The Confirmation Bias

The confirmation bias is the tendency to interpret new information so that it becomes compatible with our existing theories, beliefs and convictions. In other words, we filter out any new information that contradicts our existing views. This is a dangerous practice.  As super-investor Warren Buffett says: ‘What the human being is best at doing, is interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact.’

Whether you go through life believing that ‘people are inherently good’ or ‘people are inherently bad’, you will find daily proof to support your case. Both parties, the philanthropists and the misanthropes, simply filter disconfirming evidence and focus instead on the do-gooders and dictators who support their worldviews.

An example from business journalism: ‘Google is so successful because the company nurtures a culture of creativity.’ Once this idea is on paper, the journalist corroborates it by mentioning a few other prosperous companies that foster ingenuity. Rarely does the writer seek out disconfirming evidence, which in this instance would be struggling businesses that live and breathe creativity or, conversely, flourishing firms that are utterly uncreative. Both groups have plenty of members, but the journalist simply ignores them. If he or she were to mention just one, the storyline would be ruined.

In conclusion: nothing is more convincing than your own beliefs. We believe that introspection unearths genuine self-knowledge. Unfortunately, introspection is, in large part, fabrication posing two dangers: first, the introspection illusion creates inaccurate predictions of future mental states. Trust your internal observations too much and too long, and you might be in for a very rude awakening. Second, we believe that our introspections are more reliable than those of others, which creates an illusion of superiority. Remedy: be all the more critical with yourself. Regard your internal observations with the same scepticism as claims from some random person. Become your own toughest critic.

To fight against the confirmation bias, try writing down your beliefs – whether in terms of worldview,  marriage, healthcare, career strategies – and set out to find disconfirming evidence. Axeing beliefs that feel like old friends is hard work, but maybe imperative.